Today I’d like to talk to you about some common held myths concerning NFL betting. Without question the NFL is the king of all the betting sports here in the U.S. so it makes sense to talk about it no matter what season it is.
You know as well as I do that it’s not easy to make a living in this game. Teams can look so different from week to week, you wonder if you’re watching the same squad on the field. That’s why ever since betting on sports was invented, gamblers have been looking for an edge.
The desired edge usually takes the form of a standard or trend. Someone will do a little research, or maybe they won’t. Maybe it’s just an idea that sounds good and if the trend is successful for even the smallest sample size then it takes on a life of its own. The casual bettor is looking for any edge he can get so if they get one piece of advice that seems to work then they jump all over it.
Probably the most popular, and one we’ve talked about a little bit already, is betting on the Home Underdog. While this trend might stand up in the short-term we’ve done the research for the last 15 years and it’s a losing proposition. Even more recently, the 2008 season, home underdogs finished with a 56-50-2 record ATS (Against the Spread). That returned a 0.1% profit which is kind of like banging your head against the wall. You have better things to do with your time and money than to earn 10 cents for every $100 you wager.
But the Home ‘Dog trend isn’t the only one that’s gained popularity over the years. Other people put stock in the ‘Sandwich Game.’ The theory behind this one is a team has a series of 3 games coming up. The first and third ones are against tougher competition and the middle one is against a team of supposed lesser quality. There are number of problems with this one, not least of which is that until the season gets underway you don’t really have any idea who the ‘weak’ teams will be.
In this era of free agency and salary caps a team can change its’ fortunes dramatically from one season to the next. So maybe it’s valid at the end of the season? Research shows the theory doesn’t pan out then either.
Another trend people like to follow is betting on teams after they have a bye week, figuring the extra rest will make a difference. Once again the numbers tell a different story, although teams that get their bye week later in the season seem to do a bit better. This makes it worthy of more study but by no means can we classify it as a winning strategy.
And that’s the problem with these strategies as a whole, they’re usually ideas that come up to re-enforce theories that gamblers have already come up with. What we did is we went in with no pre-conceived notions. We didn’t have a theory and then try to find numbers that supported that theory. Instead we did our research and let the numbers tell the story. And that’s why the system is a winner. I left my ego at the door and didn’t let personal feelings come into play. That’s why I came up with the best system I could for myself and for you.
Check out the research at our website today.
All the best,
